August resembles July as record-low interest rates continue to drive the pension funding deficit

Wadia_ZorastMilliman today released the results of its latest Pension Funding Index (PFI), which analyzes the 100 largest U.S. corporate pension plans. In August, these pension plans experienced a $4 billion decrease in funded status, which was due to an increase in pension liabilities and flat asset returns. The funded status for these pensions inched downward from 75.8% to 75.7%.

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Not much movement in pension funding last month. Assets didn’t budge in August, and the discount rate reached yet another record low with a modest step down. For the last three months, the funded ratio has barely moved in spite of continued funding by plan sponsors.

Looking forward, under an optimistic forecast with rising interest rates (reaching 3.52% by the end of 2016 and 4.12% by the end of 2017) and asset gains (11.2% annual returns), the funded ratio would climb to 79% by the end of 2016 and 91% by the end of 2017. Under a pessimistic forecast (3.12% discount rate at the end of 2016 and 2.52% by the end of 2017 and 3.2% annual returns), the funded ratio would decline to 73% by the end of 2016 and 67% by the end of 2017.

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