Milliman today released the results of its latest Pension Funding Index (PFI), which analyzes the 100 largest U.S. corporate pension plans. In March, the deficit for these pension plans decreased from $275 billion to $247 billion, a $28 billion improvement that resulted from robust asset returns and an increase in benchmark corporate bond rates used to value pension liabilities. The funded ratio for these pensions climbed from 83.8% to 85.3% as of March 31.
The first quarter of 2017 has seen the cumulative asset values of the Milliman 100 pension plans exceed expectations – increasing by $37 billion thanks to strong recurring investment returns – while discount rates are just shy of where they were at the beginning of the year. Overall, funded status has increased by $33 billion during the quarter.
Looking forward, under an optimistic forecast with rising interest rates (reaching 4.41% by the end of 2017 and 5.01% by the end of 2018) and asset gains (11.0% annual returns), the funded ratio would climb to 95% by the end of 2017 and 108% by the end of 2018. Under a pessimistic forecast (3.51% discount rate at the end of 2017 and 2.91% by the end of 2018 and 3.0% annual returns), the funded ratio would decline to 80% by the end of 2017 and 73% by the end of 2018.
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