Milliman today released the results of its latest Pension Funding Index (PFI), which analyzes the 100 largest U.S. corporate pension plans. In May, these pensions experienced a $2 billion dip in funded status as investment gains mostly offset a four-point decrease in the monthly discount rate. The funded ratio for the Milliman 100 PFI remains unchanged at 91.6% as of May 31.
Sometimes no news is good news for corporate pensions. May’s 0.73% investment gain exceeded monthly expectations, and helped balance out the month’s modest decrease in corporate bond rates.
From April 30, 2018, through May 31, Milliman 100 PFI plans experienced a $7 billion increase in asset values, while the projected benefit obligation (PBO) rose by $9 billion. As a result, the deficit increased from $139 billion to $141 billion for the month. Over the last year (June 2017 to May 2018), the Milliman 100 PFI funded status deficit has improved by $116 billion.
Looking forward, under an optimistic forecast with rising interest rates (reaching 4.34% by the end of 2018 and 5.03% by the end of 2019) and asset gains (10.8% annual returns), the funded ratio would climb to 100% by the end of 2018 and 116% by the end of 2019. Under a pessimistic forecast (3.64% discount rate at the end of 2018 and 3.03% by the end of 2019 and 2.8% annual returns), the funded ratio would decline to 87% by the end of 2018 and 81% by the end of 2019.