Milliman today released the results of its latest Pension Funding Index (PFI), which analyzes the 100 largest U.S. corporate pension plans. In February, after five months of steady improvement, these pension plans experienced a $6 billion decline in funded status primarily due to discount rates that plunged from 4.00% in January to 3.89% in February, an 11 basis point drop. The funded ratio for these pensions inched down from 81.6% to 81.5% over the same time period. Robust investment gains of 1.74% helped offset the funded status decline.
While February’s strong investment gains helped soften the blow dealt by the discount rate decline, all eyes are on interest rates right now. The Federal Reserve has signaled it will raise rates this month, which would be welcome news for pension plans.
Looking forward, under an optimistic forecast with rising interest rates (reaching 4.39% by the end of 2017 and 4.99% by the end of 2018) and asset gains (11.2% annual returns), the funded ratio would climb to 91% by the end of 2017 and 104% by the end of 2018. Under a pessimistic forecast (3.39% discount rate at the end of 2017 and 2.79% by the end of 2018 and 3.2% annual returns), the funded ratio would decline to 75% by the end of 2017 and 69% by the end of 2018.
Milliman today released the results of its latest Pension Funding Index (PFI), which analyzes the 100 largest U.S. corporate pension plans. The year 2017 opened optimistically, with the funded status for these pension plans improving by $9 billion due to January’s investment gain of 0.87% as well as a small rise in corporate bond rates used to value pension liabilities. As a result, the funded ratio for these plans climbed 0.5% to 81.6% from 81.1% in December 2016.
January marks the fifth straight month of funded status improvement, with discount rates once again returning to 4.0%—albeit barely. And with investment returns coming in above expectations, 2017 seems like it’s off to a positive start for pensions.
Looking forward, under an optimistic forecast with rising interest rates (reaching 4.55% by the end of 2017 and 5.15% by the end of 2018) and asset gains (11.2% annual returns), the funded ratio would climb to 92% by the end of 2017 and 105% by the end of 2018. Under a pessimistic forecast (3.45% discount rate at the end of 2017 and 2.85% by the end of 2018 and 3.2% annual returns), the funded ratio would decline to 75% by the end of 2017 and 69% by the end of 2018.
Milliman today released the results of its latest Pension Funding Index (PFI), which analyzes the 100 largest U.S. corporate pension plans. In December, the funded status for these pension plans improved by $13 billion due to robust investment returns of 1.17%, and the funded ratio increased from 80.3% to 81.0% to close out the year. Overall, interest rate declines characterized 2016, with the end of August marking the lowest discount rate (at 3.32%) in the PFI’s 16-year history. Since that point and coincident with the conclusion of the U.S. presidential election, interest rates have steadily increased.
Last year was a rollercoaster of a year, but we’re ending up nearly where we started—with a funded ratio of 81.0%. Going into 2017, rumors of potential multiple interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have plan sponsors and pension practitioners closely watching market activity. If interest rates continue to climb, the funded ratio could make some major gains.
Looking forward, under an optimistic forecast with rising interest rates (reaching 4.59% by the end of 2017 and 5.19% by the end of 2018) and asset gains (11.2% annual returns), the funded ratio would climb to 93% by the end of 2017 and 106% by the end of 2018. Under a pessimistic forecast (3.39% discount rate at the end of 2017 and 2.79% by the end of 2018 and 3.2% annual returns), the funded ratio would decline to 74% by the end of 2017 and 68% by the end of 2018.
The 100 largest U.S. corporate pension plans experienced a minuscule funding improvement of 0.1% in 2015, according to the Milliman 2016 Pension Funding Study (PFS). The aggregate funded ratio increased from 81.7% to 81.8% based on a $75.8 billion decrease in the market value of plan assets and a $94.5 billion decrease in the projected benefit obligation (PBO). This resulted in an $18.7 billion improvement in funded status.
In this Milliman Hangout, PFS coauthor Zorast Wadia discusses the results of the study with Amy Resnick, editor of Pensions & Investments.
Milliman consultants had another prolific publishing year in 2014, with blog topics ranging from healthcare reform to HATFA. As 2014 comes to a close, we’ve highlighted Milliman’s top 20 blogs for 2014 based on total page views.
17. In her blog, “PBGC variable rate premium: Should plans make the switch?,” Milliman’s Maria Moliterno provides examples of how consultants can estimate variable rate premiums using either the standard premium funding target or the alternative premium funding target for 2014 and 2015 plan years.
Over the past few years, there is evidence to confirm that several employers sponsoring defined benefit (DB) pension plans have been settling their plans’ pension obligation to former employees via a single lump-sum payout. It is commonly referred to as a lump-sum cleanup strategy. Some commenters have said that not only has demand for such a strategy not abated, it has accelerated.
This blog post will remain neutral on the prudence of implementing such a strategy, as each employer’s goal is unique. Recognizing that employers who implement such strategies spend enormous energy and resources to communicate the consequences and financial impact on those electing the lump-sum payout, it’s questionable whether recipients completely understand the individual tax implications it could personally have on them. (And to be clear, this blog post does not implicitly or explicitly render any type of tax advice.)
If a participant chooses to roll over the lump-sum distribution to a personal tax-deferred IRA or to a tax-qualified savings plan of a new employer, the issues below are irrelevant. However, if the lump-sum is received as current income:
• The individual could move into the next higher marginal tax bracket, both federal and state (where there is a state income tax).
• The individual could face a 10% excise tax if that person is younger than age 59½.
• The individual could incur an underwithholding penalty in comparison to their prior year’s tax liability.
• According to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), eligible individuals and families with incomes between 100% and 400% of the federal poverty level (FPL) may receive premium tax credits for purchasing health insurance in the healthcare exchange. The 2013 FPL for a single person is $11,490 and this individual’s healthcare premium payment is capped at $228 per year. A lump-sum of approximately $29,000 would raise that premium cap to $3,816. A lump-sum of approximately $34,000 would raise income above 400% of the FPL and the individual would have to pay the full premium of the healthcare policy selected on the healthcare exchange.
Takeaway: The economic impact of a lump-sum payout must be carefully evaluated by the recipient. It may not be as advantageous as it appears. Plan sponsors implementing this strategy may wish to consider the impacts of the ACA as they draft the communications to the prospective payees.