Tag Archives: Jeff Greco

Milliman FRM Market Commentary: January 2018

Without missing a beat, global equities continued their rally into 2018. In this month’s commentary, Milliman’s Joe Becker, Adam Schenck, and Jeff Greco address the following:

• After rising 1.5% in December and finishing the year 24% higher, the global equity market roared out of the gate in January climbing 5.5% and notching its best start to a new year since 1994.
• Emerging market equities lead the way, rising nearly 10% before finishing the month up 8.2%. That brings its 12-month return to 41.3%, its best since April 2010.
• With the exception of emerging market equities, volatility edged slightly higher around the globe in January, but remained in a historically low range. The VIX reached its highest level since August.
• In the US, consumer discretionary stocks lead all sectors, rising 9.2% on the month, while interest-rate sensitive utilities lagged as the majority of the yield curve pushed sharply higher.
• The Fed left its interest rate unchanged at its Jan. 31 meeting, but noted that, “Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to move up this year and to stabilize around the committee’s 2 percent objective over the medium term.”

To learn more, download the full commentary at MRIC.com.

Global equities extend their positive streak to 13 consecutive months

The end of 2017 will cap off the third decade of performance for the MSCI ACWI Index. Never before has it entered December with a chance to notch a full calendar year of positive monthly returns. This year it heads into December with plenty of momentum, up 23% year-to-date and with a record 13 consecutive months of positive returns.

The latest Milliman FRM Market Commentary by Joe Becker, Adam Schenck, and Jeff Greco reviews more monthly results from the financial markets. To download the report visit MRIC.com.

Milliman FRM Market Commentary: October 2017

Global Equities Set Record With 12th Consecutive Positive Monthly Return

In this month’s commentary, Milliman’s Joe Becker, Adam Schenck, and Jeff Greco address the following:

  • Prior to 2017, dating back to 1988, the global equity market had recorded just one streak of 11 consecutive months of positive returns (ending February 2004). October 2017 marks the first time it has notched 12 consecutive months of positive returns.
  • Notwithstanding their strong growth, earnings multiples remain below their post-crisis peak from August 2016, amid strong 2017 earnings growth.
  • Volatility on the S&P 500 Index touched its 2017 low in October, reaching a level not seen since August 1965.
  • From the start of its time series in 1990 through 2016, the VIX never closed below 10 more than four times in any calendar year. In October it did it 11 times, bringing its 2017 total to 35.
  • EM equities resumed their ascent in October after a small decline in September, bringing their year-to-date (YTD) total return to 26.7%, their best YTD return through October since 2009.
  • Already up 27% YTD through the end of Q3, tech stocks posted their strongest month of 2017, rising 7.7% and bringing their YTD return to 35.7%

To learn more, download the full commentary at MRIC.com.

Milliman FRM Market Commentary: September 2017

Developed markets charged ahead as emerging market (EM) equities snapped a nine-month streak of positive returns. In this month’s commentary, Milliman’s Joe Becker, Adam Schenck, and Jeff Greco address the following:

• Equity market volatility remained historically low in September, capping off a record-setting Q3.
• September locked in a statistic for the U.S. equity market not seen since Dwight Eisenhower was president.
• A divergence of inflation metrics weighs on the Fed as it begins balance sheet normalization.

To learn more, download the full commentary at MRIC.com.

How did financial markets respond to Brexit?

Throughout the month of June leading up to the Brexit vote, the markets appeared to have trouble deciding which way the vote would go. Equity markets began to sell off during the second week of June as Brexit appeared to be increasingly likely. On June 14, as sentiment changed and the likelihood of Brexit seemed to be waning, equity markets started to climb back to early June levels. Markets were firmly higher on the day of the vote, exhibiting confidence that Britons would choose to stay in the European Union. As vote counts came in, currency and futures markets grew increasingly volatile with the rising prospect that Brexit would prevail. The next morning, equity markets opened sharply lower, displaying the characteristics of a classic gap event. Milliman consultants Adam Schenck,  Jeff Greco, and Joe Becker provide more perspective in this article.