Milliman has released the results of its Fall 2017 Multiemployer Pension Funding Study, which analyzes the funded status of all multiemployer pension plans. As of June 30, 2017, these plans are nearing the healthiest they’ve been since U.S. financial markets collapsed in 2008. In the first six months of 2017, the aggregate funding percentage for all multiemployer pensions climbed from 77% to 81%, reducing the system’s shortfall by $21 billion—an improvement driven largely by favorable investment returns.
In aggregate, asset growth for multiemployer plans far outpaced assumptions for the first half of 2017. But that bears little weight for critical plans, which are hurt by their substantially lower asset bases. Despite the bull market, we’re seeing the funding gap continue to widen between critical and noncritical plans.
While noncritical plans are nearing an aggregate funded percentage of 90%, the funding level for critical plans remains around 60%. Currently about a quarter of the plans tracked by Milliman’s Multiemployer Study fall within critical levels, with some of the most troubled on track to rely on assistance from the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC)—which itself is facing severe financial challenges. Comparatively, of the approximately 1,250 plans analyzed in the study, around 75% are considered noncritical.
To view the complete study, click here.
Also, to receive regular updates of Milliman’s pension funding analysis, contact us here.
Milliman has released the results of its Spring 2017 Multiemployer Pension Funding Study, which analyzes the funded status of all multiemployer pension plans. As of December 31, 2016, these plans have an aggregate funding percentage of 77%, a 1% increase since June 2016. During that six-month period, the market value of assets increased by $17 billion while pension liabilities increased by $13 billion, resulting in a $4 billion decrease in the aggregate funding status shortfall.
But results vary by plan; while noncritical plans experienced an aggregate funding percentage of nearly 85%, the funding level for critical plans is under 60%. The gap continues to widen between critical and noncritical plans. While the funding percentage of healthier plans has increased slightly, critical plans have seen no appreciable increase. Persistent strong returns would be needed to see any appreciable improvement in funded status.
A closer look into how contributions are distributed shows that plans facing severe funding challenges only spend 38 cents of each contribution dollar on new benefit accruals, while 50 cents of every dollar goes to pay down funding shortfalls. Healthier plans spend 56 cents per contribution dollar on benefit accruals and 32 cents on funding shortfalls. The remaining 12 cents in both scenarios is spent on expenses.
This is the first of three pension funding studies Milliman will be releasing this week. To view the complete study, click here. To receive regular updates of Milliman’s pension funding analysis, contact us here.
Milliman today released the results of its Fall 2016 Multiemployer Pension Funding Study, which analyzes the funded status of all multiemployer pension plans. So far this year, these pension plans experienced a funding percentage increase of 1%, rising from 75% at the end of 2015 to reach 76% as of June 30. Most multiemployer pensions estimated investment returns of over 3%, slightly below expectations. Pension liabilities for these plans increased by $9 billion.
These plans haven’t seen much movement, though it’s worth noting that about half of the total underfunding for multiemployer plans continues to be attributable to plans that are less than 65% funded and have entered critical status. About 40% of these critical plans are projected to be insolvent at some point.
Where do multiemployer plans go from here? In the aggregate, the return for the rest of 2016 needs to be 3% in order to preserve the current 76% funded status. A 9% return for the second half of the year would result in aggregate funding above 80%, while a -3% return would pull it down toward 70%.
Milliman today released the results of its Spring 2016 Multiemployer Pension Funding Study, which analyzes the funded status of all multiemployer pension plans. In the second half of 2015, these pension plans experienced a funding percentage decrease of 4%, declining from 79% at the end of June to 75% at the close of 2015. During that time, pension liabilities for these plans increased by $8 billion and the market value of assets declined by $18 billion, resulting in a $26 billion increase in the funded status shortfall. Since undergoing a minor rally in funded status that peaked in 2013, multiemployer pensions have experienced continued deterioration in funded status.
Multiemployer plans continued to be stuck in a rut in 2015. Currently at least 76 plans with $28 billion of shortfall are projected to be insolvent at some point. These plans may be beyond help at this point, and several more may be headed this direction.
Results vary by plan. Of the plans studied, 192 were over 100% funded at year-end (compared with the 279 plans over 100% funded as of June 30, 2015). The number of plans that are less than 65% funded grew from 214 to 264. The most poorly funded pensions are of particular interest, because plans in “critical and declining status” may reduce benefits in an effort to stay solvent. Currently, 31 of the critical plans that have reported results have stated they are projected to go insolvent before 2025, and this number could rise as more plans file their reports.
Milliman today released the results of its Fall 2015 Multiemployer Pension Funding Study (MPFS), which analyzes the cumulative funded status of all U.S. multiemployer pension plans. These pension plans showed little movement in the last six months, dropping from 80% as of December 31, 2014, to 79% as of June 30, 2015.
The study noted that the market value of assets for all multiemployer plans decreased by $1 billion. The liability for accrued benefits grew by $7 billion and resulted in an increase in the funded status shortfall of $8 billion.
Multiemployer pension plans have not experienced the kind of equity returns hoped for this year, and recent stock market volatility has only compounded the funding challenges. We’ve added a new twist to this latest study, forecasting how various returns would affect funded status. A strong six months of double-digit returns could push pension funding for multiemployer plans slightly over 87%, while a 7% decline would drop funded status below 72%.
As of June 30, 279 multiemployer plans are over 100% funded, with an aggregate surplus of approximately $6 billion, unchanged from December 31, 2014. The shortfall for multiemployer plans less than 65% funded grew from $60 billion to $65 billion. This group now represents about 17% of all plans and continues to account for more than half of the aggregate deficit for all multiemployer plans of $125 billion.
The study also found that there has been significant recovery from the low point in 2009, but that the aggregate funded percentage has yet to return to pre-2008 levels.
Milliman today released the results of its Spring 2015 Multiemployer Pension Funding Study (MPFS), which analyzes the cumulative funded status of all U.S. multiemployer pension plans. These pension plans experienced little movement last year, slipping slightly from an 81% funded status at the end of 2013 to an 80% funded status at the end of 2014. As was the case in 2013, many mature plans are still struggling to recover from the financial crisis.
While the market value of assets for all multiemployer plans increased by $7 billion, the liability for accrued benefits outpaced these gains, growing by $12 billion and resulting in an increased shortfall of $5 billion.
People assume that the stock market recovery would be enough to push these multiemployer plans back to where they were in 2007, but it’s not that simple. Liabilities have been growing at 7.5% per year on average, which complicates a full recovery.
Approximately 15% of multiemployer pension plans are less than 65% funded as of December 31, 2014, and over half of the $117 billion aggregate shortfall for all multiemployer plans is attributable to these plans. On the positive side, about 22% of all multiemployer plans are over 100% funded.
The study notes that the recently enacted Multiemployer Pension Reform Act of 2014 provides new tools to the trustees of the most severely underfunded multiemployer plans.
To download a copy of the entire study, click here.