One Native American community engaged Milliman to learn how membership growth would affect the funding needed to finance benefit programs for its citizenry. In this article, consultant Bruce Mitton explains the firm’s population projection that helped tribal leaders understand the financial implications of the community’s long-term growth rate.
Here is an excerpt:
Milliman prepared a report for the community leaders that showed that the size of the citizenry was likely to increase 50% over the next 20 years. While this is a significant increase, the previous estimate led them to believe that they would reach this size in a period of only 10 years instead of 20. We were able to provide a more realistic prediction of how their group would change over time. The citizens’ average age was expected to increase from about 26.8 years to roughly 29.6 years over the same 20-year period. Finally, we were able to provide them with count estimates in five-year age groups at five, 10, 15, and 20 years in the future, as well as the expected number of deaths. They were very happy with the refined estimate because it will enable them to match the various programs with the appropriate age groups and, using the future counts, develop budgets and make more definite plans for the future.