Tag Archives: Zorast Wadia

Corporate pensions face largest monthly loss of 2017 in August

Milliman today released the results of its latest Pension Funding Index (PFI), which analyzes the 100 largest U.S. corporate pension plans. In August, the funded status of these plans fell by $17 billion – the largest loss year-to-date – due to a decrease in the benchmark corporate bond interest rates used to value pension liabilities. The Milliman 100 PFI plans saw their deficit swell from $281 billion as of July 31 to $298 billion at the end of August. The funded ratio dropped from 83.8% to 83.0% over the same time period, and is now below where it was at the beginning of 2017 for the first time this year.

The funded ratio for the Milliman 100 plans continues to teeter up and down during 2017, and now we find it below the mark set at the beginning of the year. It will be interesting to see how discount rates will change over the next few months and how the potential release of updated mortality tables will affect pension contributions and funded status going forward.

Looking forward, under an optimistic forecast with rising interest rates (reaching 3.80% by the end of 2017 and 4.40% by the end of 2018) and asset gains (11.0% annual returns), the funded ratio would climb to 87% by the end of 2017 and 100% by the end of 2018. Under a pessimistic forecast (3.40% discount rate at the end of 2017 and 2.80% by the end of 2018 and 3.0% annual returns), the funded ratio would decline to 81% by the end of 2017 and 74% by the end of 2018.

To view the complete Pension Funding Index, click here. To receive regular updates of Milliman’s pension funding analysis, contact us here.

July’s corporate pension funded status steady amid investment gains, discount rate decline

Milliman has released the results of its latest Pension Funding Index (PFI), which analyzes the 100 largest U.S. corporate pension plans. In July, the funded status of these plans rose by $4 billion as the Milliman 100 PFI deficit shrank from $286 billion at the end of June to $282 billion at the end of July. The slight increase in funded status resulted from strong investment gains that compensated for a decrease in the benchmark corporate bond interest rates used to value pension liabilities. The funded ratio inched up from 83.5% the previous month to 83.7% as of July 31. Over the past seven months the funded ratio of these plans has been teetering between 83% and 84%.

Given the relatively strong market returns contrasted with persistently low interest rates, it’s no surprise that there’s been little movement this year in the funded ratio for the Milliman 100 plans. With the lack of funded ratio improvement, we’re seeing a number of sponsors make additional contributions with an eye towards shoring up funded status in the future.

Looking forward, under an optimistic forecast with rising interest rates (reaching 3.96% by the end of 2017 and 4.56% by the end of 2018) and asset gains (11.0% annual returns), the funded ratio would climb to 89% by the end of 2017 and 102% by the end of 2018. Under a pessimistic forecast (3.46% discount rate at the end of 2017 and 2.86% by the end of 2018 and 3.0% annual returns), the funded ratio would decline to 81% by the end of 2017 and 74% by the end of 2018.

To view the complete Pension Funding Index, click here. To receive regular updates of Milliman’s pension funding analysis, contact us here.

Despite steep Q2 discount rate decline, corporate pension funded ratio still ahead of the start of the year

Milliman today released the results of its latest Pension Funding Index (PFI), which analyzes the 100 largest U.S. corporate pension plans. In June, the funded status of these plans fell by $4 billion, the result of lower-than-expected investment returns and a decrease in the benchmark corporate bond interest rates used to value pension liabilities. The Milliman 100 PFI plans saw their deficit grow from $281 billion to $285 billion with a drop of two basis points from May to June. As of June 30, the funded ratio had inched down from 83.7% to 83.5%, though that midyear number is still slightly above where it was at the start of 2017.

While June saw lackluster investment returns of 0.35%, overall the Milliman 100 PFI assets performed better than expected in Q2—some much needed good news for these plans, whose liabilities continue to grow as discount rates decline.

Looking forward, under an optimistic forecast with rising interest rates (reaching 4.04% by the end of 2017 and 4.64% by the end of 2018) and asset gains (11.0% annual returns), the funded ratio would climb to 90% by the end of 2017 and 103% by the end of 2018. Under a pessimistic forecast (3.44% discount rate at the end of 2017 and 2.84% by the end of 2018 and 3.0% annual returns), the funded ratio would decline to 80% by the end of 2017 and 73% by the end of 2018.

To view the complete Pension Funding Index, click here. To receive regular updates of Milliman’s pension funding analysis, contact us here.

May’s declining discount rates wipe out first quarter funded status gains for corporate pensions

Milliman has released the results of its latest Pension Funding Index (PFI), which analyzes the 100 largest U.S. corporate pension plans. In May, the deficit for these plans rose by $22 billion from $257 billion to $279 billion, which was due to a decrease in the benchmark corporate bond interest rates used to value pension liabilities. As of May 31 the funded ratio had fallen to 83.8%, the 1.10% decline partially offset by investment returns.

Corporate pensions have experienced a drop of 23 basis points in discount rates since the start of the year, depleting funded status gains accumulated during the first quarter. While liabilities continue to pile up as discount rates decline, investment returns have been above expectations for first five months of 2017, preventing further deterioration to pension funded status.

Looking forward, under an optimistic forecast with rising interest rates (reaching 4.11% by the end of 2017 and 4.71% by the end of 2018) and asset gains (11.0% annual returns), the funded ratio would climb to 91% by the end of 2017 and 104% by the end of 2018. Under a pessimistic forecast (3.41% discount rate at the end of 2017 and 2.81% by the end of 2018 and 3.0% annual returns), the funded ratio would decline to 80% by the end of 2017 and 73% by the end of 2018.

To view the complete Pension Funding Index, click here. To receive regular updates of Milliman’s pension funding analysis, contact us here.

Declining discount rates drive corporate funded status down by $10 billion in April

Milliman has released the results of its latest Pension Funding Index (PFI), which analyzes the 100 largest U.S. corporate pension plans. Despite strong investment returns of 0.84%, in April the deficit for these pension plans increased from $247 billion to $257 billion, the result of a decrease in the benchmark corporate bond rates used to value pension liabilities. The funded ratio for these pensions fell from 85.3% to 84.9% over the same time period.

Tracking these pensions lately has been like watching a game of ping pong. Robust investment returns are in a rally with interest rates, and in this metaphor we’re all waiting on interest rates to advance the game.

Looking forward, under an optimistic forecast with rising interest rates (reaching 4.28% by the end of 2017 and 4.88% by the end of 2018) and asset gains (11.0% annual returns), the funded ratio would climb to 93% by the end of 2017 and 107% by the end of 2018. Under a pessimistic forecast (3.48% discount rate at the end of 2017 and 2.88% by the end of 2018 and 3.0% annual returns), the funded ratio would decline to 80% by the end of 2017 and 73% by the end of 2018.

To view the complete Pension Funding Index, click here. To receive regular updates of Milliman’s pension funding analysis, contact us here.

Investment gains, higher discount rates lead to $28 billion corporate funded status improvement in March

Milliman today released the results of its latest Pension Funding Index (PFI), which analyzes the 100 largest U.S. corporate pension plans. In March, the deficit for these pension plans decreased from $275 billion to $247 billion, a $28 billion improvement that resulted from robust asset returns and an increase in benchmark corporate bond rates used to value pension liabilities. The funded ratio for these pensions climbed from 83.8% to 85.3% as of March 31.

The first quarter of 2017 has seen the cumulative asset values of the Milliman 100 pension plans exceed expectations—increasing by $37 billion thanks to strong recurring investment returns—while discount rates are just shy of where they were at the beginning of the year. Overall, funded status has increased by $33 billion during the quarter.

Looking forward, under an optimistic forecast with rising interest rates (reaching 4.41% by the end of 2017 and 5.01% by the end of 2018) and asset gains (11.0% annual returns), the funded ratio would climb to 95% by the end of 2017 and 108% by the end of 2018. Under a pessimistic forecast (3.51% discount rate at the end of 2017 and 2.91% by the end of 2018 and 3.0% annual returns), the funded ratio would decline to 80% by the end of 2017 and 73% by the end of 2018.

To view the complete Pension Funding Index, click here. To see the 2017 Milliman Pension Funding Study, click here.

To receive regular updates of Milliman’s pension funding analysis, contact us here.